call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
Ealy Warning Report, nr.1, July-October 2009
1. Early
warning
REPORT
July - October 2009
Institute for Development
and Social Initiatives
(IDIS) „Viitorul”
Corneliu Ciurea Adrian Buligari Igor Munteanu
Alexandru Fală Marcela Dilion
2.
3. Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul”
Early warning
rEPOrT
July - OctOber 2009
Corneliu Ciurea
Adrian Buligari
Igor Munteanu
Alexandru Fală
Marcela Dilion
4. This report was prepared with financial support offered by BTD
(Balkan Trust for Democracy) and Think Tank Fund of LGI/OSI.
Expressed opinions are those of authors. Neither the Administration
of IDIS „Viitorul”, nor the Administrative Council of the Institute
for Development and Social Initiatives „Viitorul” bears any
responsibility for the estimates and opinions presented in the very
publication.
Any use of information or opinions of the author of this Study
should make a reference to IDIS „Viitorul”.
6. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
iNTrOducTiON:
Risk factoRs affecting the
Republic of Moldova
Major risk the Multiple risks which threaten republic of Moldova’ security
Republic of for some time now can not but question the state’s capacity
Moldova is facing
to deal with them, in conditions of world economic crisis and
is internal in
nature power transferring process which takes place in chişinău . di-
verse arguments compete to better show the increased vulne-
rability of the situation in which republic of Moldova finds
itself . first and foremost, the major risk republic of Moldova
is facing is internal in nature . political crisis and the stalemate
in electing the president might set off another elections cycle
and place Moldova on a track of continuous parliamentarian
elections, thus shaping a risk that cannot be ignored . In this
respect, it is worth mentioning here the predominance of in-
ternal factor over external ones while assessing imminent risks
that endanger republic of Moldova’s security . this fact comes
to grips with previously conducted studies, which always em-
phasized external factor as being predominant in disturbing
internal situation of the country . It is enough to go over the
titles of studies previously conducted in the field of national
security in order to notice obvious emphasis of those studies
on transnistrian conf lict, border control problems, involve-
ment of international organizations – nato, guaM, cIs,
osce, as well as of some states such as russia, etc . for the
time being, though, there is an acknowledgement of the fact
that problems that challenge republic of Moldova’s statehood
are a product of local tensions and they can be handled only
through internal mobilization (and, maybe, with the assistan-
ce of the international community) . prime-minister vladimir
filat is underscoring this issue when he is insisting on the
need to “be fully independent, without any commitments to-
wards some of others” .1
negotiations over the president’ elections are quite complex,
depend on many factors and engage a great number of actors .
1 http://www.stireazilei.md/news-1843
6
7. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
the complexity derives from the fact that, although all parties
involved in negotiations recognize the need of avoiding repea-
ted elections, yet, in certain circumstances are prone to reject
the compromise and go for another elections .
It should be mentioned here that political crisis in chişinău is Political crisis
not driven from by an external source but is rather the result of in Chişinău was
constitutional imperfections due to regulate the lections of the not induced from
outside, being
state’s president . amendments of constitution operated back to a large extent
in June of the year 2000, which re-calibrated the political sys- the outcome of
tem in the republic of Moldova by giving it a parliamentarian constitutional
allure, are the source of today’ stalemate . created blockages shortfalls related
to the elections of
cannot be quickly eliminated due to complicated procedures
the president of
of operating amendments in the constitution, which require the country
at least half a year . due to that political actors are constrained
in their discussions by the existing legal framework, without
having the possibility to change it . as such, we are witnessing
the emergence of a vicious circle from which the exit may be
possible only through mediations and compromises .
the elections of the president are just one element, although Elections of
important one, of the power transfer which takes place in chi- the president,
although
şinău . although at the moment there are no premises, which
extremely
may make one believe that the power transfer process can be important, are
interrupted, the political system continues encountering nu- just one element
merous obstacles that may lead at the end, to its undermining: in the power
transfer process
the impossibility to dismiss certain officials (or the other way
that unfolds in
around), the excess of appointed public servants, delays gene- Chişinău
rated by the inability to reach compromise within the alliance
for european Integration, appointment of dubious individuals
on high positions, pensioners’ street protests, etc . not all these
risks had been accounted for before, although they represent
the achilles heel of the political regime established after the
elections of 29 of July .
economic crisis is another highly debated issue, which over- This economic
laps on political risks . economists are assessing that republic crisis is fueled by
of Moldova registers a recession of about 6 - 7 % of gdp . this poor management
of resources, owed
economic crisis is fueled by an inefficient resources manage- to electoral process
ment, which owes to the elections process in the country . ac- in the country
cording to the Moldovan officials’ statements made right after
having taken over the offices, the budget deficit for 2009 rises
7
8. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
to 14% of gdp or to 8,5 billions lei . eventually, after some
interventions the government declared that the budget deficit
would make only 9,5% of gdp, which meant a significant de-
crease owed to received loans . 2 In these conditions, the prime-
minister’ declaration about the agreement with IMf as being
“the only hope for the republic of Moldova” represents an
index of the state’ inability to handle economic challenges .
Strict conditions In such case the notion of „failing state”, even if is a bit exagge-
and negotiations
rated, covers most of the aspects of the realities in the republic
held with IMF
officials show that of Moldova . another accredited term - „fragile state” – seems
Moldova is still to be more acceptable by the local sensibilities . In any case,
in the category of despite the used term, both notions describe the situation of
countries under states that need an emergency treatment of its internal proble-
tutelage
ms . this treatment, given through the loans and assistance by
external donors, remains to be managed by local governments,
which undergo certain difficulties caused by traumatized po-
pulation, lack of will, capacity and legitimacy to carry out re-
forms . 3 In this sense, the mentioned terms just partially apply
to Moldova’s reality, and the situation itself is not comparable
to that in classic failed states . obviously, Moldova cannot be
compared with such failed states as afghanistan, Iraq, somali,
liberia, etc . this classification, however, includes Moldova in
the category of states that are about to fail, such as Indonesia,
columbia, sri lanca, sudan and nepal, i .e . states that do not
have full control over the monopoly of legitimate use of force
and application of fiscal policies .4 republic of Moldova is not
a clear-cut case from this standpoint . even so the ability to
exercise the legitimate use of force is seriously damaged in the
republic of Moldova, situation in this area is relatively sta-
ble and does not generate much concerns for the international
community . Moldova will benefit in the nearest future from a
substantial financial help of over $ 1 billion, donated by wes-
tern states (together with IMf), which indicates that the do-
nors’ community has in mind a sort of Marshall plan for this
country . this help shows that the government is given a cre-
dit for its capacity to manage financial resources allocated by
international organizations, the fact that certainly proves that
2 http://www.voceabasarabiei.net/index.php/stiri/economic/5276-prim-ministrul-vladimir-filat-
a-participat-astzi-la-linia-direct-cu-cititorii-ziarului-komsomoliskaia-pravda-v-moldove
3 Tim Carrington, „Managing the recoveryof failing states”, Part 1, in www.theglobalist.com,
06.10.2009
4 Ulrih Snekkener (Ульрих Шнеккенер), „Dissolution of state as global threat («Распад
государства как глобальная угроза»)”, in Internationale Politik, 6/2003
8
9. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
Moldova is still af loat . nevertheless, imposed strict conditi-
ons and conducted negotiations with IMf’ officials show that
Moldova is still at least in the category of protected states .
even if Moldovan officials declare that IMf loans represent
the only “life saving vest” for the republic of Moldova, this
situation is not typical for poor country like Moldova, but is
similarly true in the case of some european union member-
states . romania is negotiating at the moment a 1,5 billion
euro loan, which, if not allocated, may render the romanian
government unable to pay salaries and pensions . with all the-
se, the political crisis in bucharest and dismissal of boc’ go-
vernment make experts assess as 50/50 the chances to get the
loan, since IMf conditions the disbursement of money with
the budget adoption by 10 december . thus, there is a great
risk for salaries and pensions be payments be stopped .5 this
case proves that borderlines between weak states, failing states
and failed states are extremely thin and porous, making it di-
fficult to place republic of Moldova in a certain category .
yet, we can talk about certain degree of profound precarious- We may talk
ness or increased vulnerability in which Moldova finds itself about certain
today . that, however, should not sound as a verdict for this degree of deep
precariousness
state . problems proliferation and situations, typical to crisis’ or increased
phases, test out the state capacity to deal with these challen- vulnerability in
ges . at the end, the difference between “failed state” and “fa- which Moldova
iling state” on one hand, and a functional state on the other, finds itself, but
that should not
aim its ability to mobilize resources and build partnerships
sound as a verdict
in order to overcome the crisis on its own . thus, states that for this country
undertake reforms should prove commitment to three crucial
elements: 1) political will; 2) necessary competences and 3)
legitimacy, translated in support to the population . all these
three elements are under construction today in the republic
of Moldova .
In the present report we included studies in four sensible fi-
elds, which serve as risks repositories for the security of the
republic of Moldova: regional, politic, economic and social .
the report signed by Igor Munteanu, „regional instabilities:
deficit of transformation model or the failure of elites?” assesses
5 http://www.financiarul.ro/2009/11/03/tanasescu-transa-de-la-fmi-depinde-de-aprobarea-buge-
tului-inainte-de-10-decembrie-2009/
9
10. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
the situation in neighboring countries – ukraine and romania
– through the existent inter-dependencies and possible effects
of states’ contagion to the extent they could amplify or dimi-
nish internal risks that threatens security of the republic of
Moldova . the author insists on the idea of interaction betwe-
en states, which may lead to the situation when any political
or economic change in one country would have visible effects
on its neighbors . the report presents, as well, an inventory of
Moldovan-ukrainian and Moldovan-romanian relations and
identifies agendas of common problems . the author suggests
that there is a lack to some extent of synchronization between
these states, mainly due to their different status in respect to
european union, although there are astonishing similarities,
yet, between the states in terms of political instability and ten-
sions generated by electoral contexts . according to the author,
the stakes in electoral competitions in the republic of Moldo-
va and ukraine are rooted in the system and have to do with
delays in promoting reforms, while in romania political con-
f licts come out of the differences in discourse styles used by
various actors . as such, political conf licts obstructed the en-
dorsement of new legislation needed to counter the economic
crisis in ukraine and republic of Moldova, while in romania
this problem was less felt in spite of harsh conf lict unfolded
between president băsescu and newly formed parliamentarian
majority .
Stakes in electoral Main predictions articulated by the author aim the improve-
competitions in ment of relations between republic of Moldova and neighbo-
the Republic of
ring countries . the attentions of Moldova and ukraine are
Moldova and
Ukraine are being absorbed by the signing of association agreements with
rooted in the european union, which means an enormous investment of
system, delays in resources, energy and political intelligence . Improvements of
implementing relationships owe largely to the new governance established in
reforms having
shaped out, while
chisinau . that highlights internal risks at the expenses of ex-
in Romania ternal ones . Main challenges that ukraine and Moldova have
political conflicts to deal with in the immediate future – given the fact that both
emerge out of states suffer from similar structural constraints – are the re-
the difference in
sumption of relations with International Monetary fund, over-
discourse styles
used by various coming the situation of political indecisiveness and paralyze,
actors ensuring stability of power transfer process, maintaining the
european integration course and attracting western funds .
10
11. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
the report in political field, entitled “political crisis in chi-
sinau and attractiveness of non-optimal results” and written
by cornel ciurea, takes into account two groups of risks that
might affect in the nearest future the performance of Moldo-
van government, leading to the limit of political instability
in the country – stalemate in negotiations between the alli-
ance for european Integration (aeI) and communist party of
the republic of Moldova (cpr M), on one hand, and internal
risks within aeI determined by rivalries, clientele interests
and incongruent ideologies . according to the author, negoti-
ations between aeI and cpr M are heading into sub-optimal
direction mainly due to the lack of mutual trust amongst poli-
tical actors and their incapacity to find solutions how to treat
conquered party . sub-optimal result is the consequence of the
impossibility of mutual destruction, fact proven, mainly, by
previous political experience in Moldova and labeled in the
specialty literature as ”pluralism by default” . this situation
will engage political parties in harsh confrontation with little
chances to get out of this vicious circle of non-conciliatory
rivalry . the most realistic scenarios seem to be those that su-
ggest either repeated elections, or persuasion of cpr M and
recruitment of few individual votes to elect the president wi-
thout the consent of the party . both cases encompass great
risks of producing political crises .
political situation in Moldova can be described as being unsta- The most realist
ble also due to possible games and internal political strategies scenarios seem
within aeI that may be difficult to understand . there is a risk to be those that
suggest either
of formation of clientele groups oriented against public interest . anticipated
this conclusion presented by the author takes into account poli- elections or
tical experience of the republic of Moldova in the past, namely persuasion of
the excessive fragmentation and recurrence of internal conflicts CPRM in order to
attract individual
within the alliance for democracy and reforms, which gover-
votes to elect
ned in 1998-2001 . follow on groups of risks have been identified the president
in the report that may generate frictions within the alliance: 1) without the party’s
party factor, which draws attention on excessive centralization of consent. In both
cases inherit great
parties in the republic of Moldova, and 2) structural factor, whi-
risks of political
ch aims ideological congruence of political parties, weakness of crises emergence.
political center and political clientelism . the report concludes
with a series of recommendations, which suggest intensification
of mediations between diverse component of political system and
internal consolidation within political parties .
11
12. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
economic part is covered by alexandru fala, whose report
“economic crisis impact on the economy of the republic of
Moldova” represents radiography of the economic situation at
the time the aeI took over the governance and offers forecasts
of the evolution of the main economic indexes in the nearest
future . the author claims that Moldova’s economy is in re-
cession and gdp in 2009 will lower comparing with previous
year, registering a nominal decrease of 6% of gdp . yet, due to
positive evolutions in the region, as well as due to the increase
of some important seasonal indexes (gdp in the 3 rd Quarter
and budget incomes in the 4 th Quarter) Moldova may end the
year with better economic results as expected before . these
results still indicate, however, a drastic fall . In the meantime,
the author is assessing the problem of maintaining the budget
equilibrium, which he considers the number one task for the
current governance . the author suggests that national public
budget deficit is going to be of 4116 million Mdl in 2009,
which is, in fact, still lower than the maximum limit it could
reach . In these conditions, the external help is a life saving
vest for the national economy and is going to significantly
facilitate the good implementation of the government’ pro-
gram . having this external help provided, the government
will be able to pay salaries and pensions .
Economy of talking about relations with IMf, the author insists on the
Moldova is in necessity to reach a congruence of interests between this fi-
recession, whereas
GDP will decrease
nancial organization and the government of the republic of
in comparison Moldova . the report does not favors the continuous loosening
with previous of the monetary policy and suggests suspension of the use of
year, registering a this mechanism, mainly taking into account the fact that pri-
nominal decrease
ces stability was not affected in the republic of Moldova . li-
of 6% from GDP
kewise, the author does not support the idea of vat increase
and pushes for the preservation of a status-quo in this area for
several reasons: 1) the need to stimulate the entrepreneurs; 2)
avoid the rise of informal economy; 3) avoid prices increase,
etc . the report supports also the idea of gradual decrease of
retirement age, introduction of unified taxation rate and abs-
tention from reducing budgetary expenditures at the expenses
of public servants .
two reports had been written on social dimension . In his
analytical report „social protests and solutions for their re-
12
13. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
solution”, Marcela dilion assesses the increase of potential
for socially-driven protests in the republic of Moldova, outli-
ning two groups of risks, which, recently have expressed their
availability to switch to protesting measures – pensioners and
syndicates . the author identifies the most sensible areas that
may lead to the outbreak of such actions – poverty, unemploy-
ment, problems specific to elderly people and social services
(payments, social bonuses, social assistance allowances, and
compensations) . In the meantime, the report outlines main
actions the current government has to undertake in social di-
mension in order to alleviate the situation for poor people and
for those struggling with difficulties . follow on actions can
be listed amongst priority measures: unification of retirement
mechanism for all categories of public servants in order to di-
minish unequal distribution; introduction of new mechanisms
for social assistance delivery, based on needs and not on merits
or adherence to certain social categories, which is considered
to be a waste of scares resources; expanding the network of
social services delivered to people in difficulty; implementa-
tion of a poverty testing mechanism in all inhabited areas to
calculate more precisely the poverty rates in order to allocate
nominal compensations based on needs; introduction of po-
verty allowances; implementation at the national level of an
informational database of all categories of people in difficulty,
of existent and required social services, of costs for delivered
services and on personnel involved in social protection system;
development of community services (such as social pharmaci-
es, social barber shops, home appliances stores, etc .); opening
more community centers for elderly people, where various
events could be conducted with participation of children and
young people etc .
the report starts, however, with a study, which intends to fill Recently two
in the lack of an analysis of 7 april 2009 events . the study groups of risks
have displayed
„youth, political violence and lessons of 7 april” was conduc-
their availability
ted by adrian buligari and cornel ciurea, their main objec- to recur to protests
tive being highlighting the problems bothering the youth and – pensioners and
describing consequences of street protests unfolded downtown syndicates
chisinau within 6-7 april 2009 . this study tried to show that
leadership factor is a decisive one in conducting peaceful pro-
tests . the existence of non-political leaders within some youth
organizations, which have ramifications in some universities,
13
14. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
allow conducting peaceful protests . efficaciousness of such
protests goes up . In the meantime, the report shows a decrease
of importance of large youth organizations popular amongst
students benefiting other, less representative organizations,
which are concerned with attracting funds and less care about
young people . the report favors the emergence of large youth
organizations at the national level, with a deep universal bre-
athing, and that would engage most of young people, would
open new legal and institutionalized opportunities to promote
and defend their interests . In the meantime, these organiza-
tions would be able to lead protests, whenever they emerge,
and would not allow them degrading into violent actions of
vandalism and guerilla .
all reports include at the end a summary of risks and proble-
ms, predictions and recommendations .
14
15. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
SOcial
AdriAn BuligAri, Cornel CiureA.
i. Youth of Moldova, political
violence and lessons of 7 apRil
1.1. Main protest movements of youth in the
Republic of Moldova
After events of 6-7
devastating and unexpected events of 6th and 7th of april turned
April politicians
out to be a true shock for Moldovan society . the burning of the launched
parliament building and devastation of the presidency created a reciprocal
generalized psychosis amongst politicians who engaged in a truly accusations,
ignoring the
hunt for a witch . being totally unprepared to handle this explosi-
causes of
on of fury coming from younger strata of the society, the political spontaneous
class, just as numerous analysts, preferred to envision in this array behavior of the
of events an invisible, obscure force, which inspired from the sha- youth
dow all movements of the masses . cprM launched some virulent
critics towards opposition and some “occult forces, which under-
mine Moldovan statehood”6, opposition, in turn, rejected those
indictments and proposed its own version of the realities, which
points to some people inside cprM as protests organizers .7 cau-
ght in reciprocal accusations and increased tensions, politicians
left aside the spontaneous behavior of youngsters, most of them
had have come out to the streets without being forced by criminal
groups or “enemies of the statehood” . Motives of such behavior
are almost entirely ignored . students are being treated with an
accusation tone, which suggests that responsibility for what had
happened falls on insufficient education, the youngsters themsel-
ves and their parents .8
In the meantime, many western analysts have drawn attention on
the non-premeditated character of some young people’s behavi-
6 „Voronin accuses Romania again, this time for failing presidential elections in the Republic of
Moldova”, www.epochtimes-romania.com, 04.06.2009
7 Mihai Ghimpu: „Communist governance wants to place the opposition outside the law”, www.
pl.md, 08.06.2009
8 Prime-minister of the Republic of Moldova: “Casualties would be difficult to avoid if state
institutions are to be attacked”, www.hotnews.ro, 09.05.2009
15
16. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
or, which, through their actions, had placed themselves in a lar-
ger context of protests that had taken place in many cities of the
world . Moldovan students displayed a typical behavior for their
age, the violence being an unconscious but intelligible reaction
to the problems they face . for example, Martin Mccauley wrote:
“protesters did not formulate any clear demand, neither political,
nor economic one” . the streets obviously hosted what french call
“emeutes ludiques”, or protest for fun-having sake .” 9 In the same
realm of ideas, vlad socor underscores the spontaneity of pro-
tests: “authorities claim that assaults of 7 april had been conspi-
red well in advance as an anti-state putsch . In the meantime they
did not provide any evidence in support of these claims: moreover,
this thesis seems to be unlikely one, taking into consideration that
protests looked more as spontaneous unfolding of events on the
ground” . 10
this approach differs from that of politicians and local experts,
who are looking for an answer for the aggressive behavior of young
people in their transgressive characters, which is the expression of
their age and disagreement with the spirit of the time . In this res-
pect, whenever youngsters from poor areas of the cities and tho-
se unemployed recur to symbolic or real violence, the only force
they can use is the power of intimidation and abuse . this type of
power, first of all, means launching threats without carrying them
out to certain finality and without putting together any coherent
programs . In other words, there is a resistance capacity of young
people against the world, which hide behind the banner “the futu-
re belongs to the youth” many traps and hypocrisies .11
Unlike other the fact that young Moldovans are more rebel and prone to la-
age categories,
unch protests is confirmed by the data collected by the public
the youth
displays greater opinion poll . unlike other categories of age, youngsters display
dissatisfactions a greater dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Moldova .
with the state data presented below shows that young people to a larger extent
of democracy in than other age categories don not consider that people’s will has a
Moldova
value in the republic of Moldova and do not believe that elections
held in their country are free and correct .
9 M. McCauley “Riots in Moldova: Could political violence spread throughout Eastern Euro-
pe?”, www.stirringtroubleinternationally.com, 12.05.2009
10 Vladimir Socor, “Moldovas Authorities Caught Unprepared by Violent Riots”, Eurasia Daily
Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 73 April 16, 2009
11 Stuart Hall and Tony Jefferson, “Resistance through Rituals: Youth Subcultures in Post-War
Britain”, London, Hutchinson, 1976
16
17. Table 1 . Answers of two age categories a r two linked P O r T
e a r ly w
to N i N g r e questi-
ons: 1) Is the people’s will governing y -Moldova and 2 0 Are
J u l
in O c T O b e r 2) 0 9
elections in Moldova free and correct .12
taking into account this predisposition of young people to launch
protest actions related to their age as well as to the existent con-
straints in the society, we considered it appropriate to assess the
history of youth unrests in the republic of Moldova and reason
of their unfolding
Table 1 . Answers of two age categories to two linked questi-
in acts of vanda-
ons: 1) Is the people’s will governing in Moldova and 2) Are
lism and violence .
elections in Moldova free and correct.12
youngsters and stu-
dents from Moldova Does people’s will govern? Are elections free and correct?
recurred often to
protests and street Yes No Don’t Yes No Don’t
know know
movements to claim
Total 28.1% 59.7% 12.1% 41.8% 45.5% 12.7%
some political, so- 18-29 years 21.7% 69.4% 8.9% 30.5% 59.2% 10.2%
cial or identity ri- 30-44 years 27.1% 61.4% 11.4% 40.4% 47.0% 12.6%
45-59 years 30.0% 60.0% 10.1% 45.8% 42.1% 12.1%
ghts . nevertheless, From 60 36.6% 41.5% 21.9% 55.6% 26.8% 17.6%
violent protests had
not been a constant
variable of these actions and surfaced recently as a result of lost Nevertheless,
control by youth organizations over the social life of youngsters violent
manifestations
and students . students and youth organizations enjoyed a glorious
surfaced not
period in the mid-90s when they had direct links with young peo- long ago as
ple and played the role of a guide and mentor . starting from 1999, the outcome of
these organizations faded away, being replaced by more mercantile lost control on
structures, which had a narrow vision and lacked leadership vo- behalf of youth
organizations
cation, limited themselves in actions with no desire to win youth’ over the youth and
respect and support . students social life
students and youth protests started in october 1992, when stu-
dents had not been paid their allowances for several months . an
initiative group had been formed, led by usM students oleg cer-
nei and Igor grosu, who, supported by the university syndica-
te, called students to a strike . this peaceful strike that gathered
approximately 30 .000 students and lasted about one month en-
ded with the satisfaction of students’ grievances . Moreover, stu-
dents got free public transportation (from the city hall) and 50%
discount on interurban transportation (from Ministry of trans-
portation) .
the largest protests took place in 1995 and lasted from March
18 till May 4 and involved over 100 000 young people . these
non-stop protests had been driven, mainly, by an identity cause,
12 Barometer of Public Opinion – July 2009, www.ipp.md, 20.07.2009
17
18. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
generated by the replacement of the history of romanians by the
history of Moldova and amendment of article 13 of the constituti-
on . In order to get population’ support, however, young protesters
(led by oleg cernei, Mihai godea, etc) included in the grievances
list some social requests, such as pensions and salaries increase
and equitable privatization of land . as an outcome of these unpre-
cedented peaceful protests, which unfolded without violence, the
then president of the republic of Moldova Mircea snegur issued
a decree that imposed a moratorium on the constitution amend-
ment (denying the introduction of bilinguism) and introduction
of the history of romanians . shortly after, Mircea snegur came
up with an legislative initiative, which aimed the amendment of
the constitution and foreseen the change from Moldovan langua-
ge to romanian language . as a result of internal conflicts within
the agrarian democratic party, of which he was member, snegur
had to leave this political formation .
Since 1997 first youth and students organizations emerged around the same
students timeframe . In 1992, as a follow up of the strike, the first stu-
movements has
dents’ league was formed – the league of students of the state
been in decline,
whereas Students university of Moldova . eventually similar leagues emerged at the
League of academy of economic sciences, cooperative commercial uni-
Moldova loses all versity of Moldova, polytechnic university, Medical university,
its influence the Institute of arts and agrarian university . these leagues were
quite influential in universities’ lives, had their own offices and
up to 25% of seats in universities’ senates . that used to give them
the possibility to promote own policies and protect students rights
in a free and independent way . In the meantime, students’ leagu-
es managed the strikes and were responsible for bringing people
as well as for peaceful conduct of meetings . In 1993, due to the
proliferation of these organizations, the students league of Mol-
dova was established, a shadow association which encompassed all
universities leagues . around the same time national holydays for
youth and students had been established .
starting from 1997, however, the students’ movements slow down
while the students league of Moldova had definitely lost its in-
fluence . there are several explanations of this process . firstly, lea-
gues’ leaders graduated and did not bother to prepare new leaders
who could have taken over . secondly, there were some tensions
within the students league of Moldova and, most importantly,
between the leadership of the national league and the leadership
18
19. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
of universities leagues, which wanted autonomy . It was obvious,
yet, that university’s leaders themselves contributed to the erosion
of students’ movements . the leagues were seen by them as strong
rivals able to block any many decisions, which universities heads
had on their agendas and wanted to get them through . leagues
lost their offices, their seats in senates had been gradually reduced
and new organizations were formed, which worked in parallel and
concurred with them . thus, the federation of students and youth
organizations was founded in 1995 with a clear objective to stop
protests .
that was why in March 2000 when a new strike broke out in In March 2000,
response to the city hall decision to cancel free public transpor- when new strike
tation benefits for students, youth organizations failed to mobi- broke out, youth
organizations
lize students’ masses and impose a peaceful character on those were not capable
protests . the strike that involved over 30 000 students from most to organize
universities in chisinau lasted several days and was characterized the masses and
by numerous violent actions and was stopped by forced interven- impose a peaceful
mood on those
tion of police and carabineer troops . 13 the lack of a steering body
manifestations
led to the movement defeat, the tax was canceled, while public
authorities came out as victors from this clash .
next protest movements took place in January 2002, when a true
political earthquake had happened under the leadership of people’s
christian democrat party . thousands of young people, accompa-
nied by older colleagues, blocked the stefan cel Mare avenue in
front of the parliament and presidency, inaugurating there the
city of liberty and protesting against the expansion of the use
of russian language in schools and introduction of bilinguism .
this marathon, which determined the communist authorities to
abandon their plans, unfolded peacefully, mainly thank to chris-
tian-democrats leaders (and less to new generation) who ensured
the well organization of the action . there were attempts during
these protests to found a mass youth organization, which was to
take over the control over the actions in square (for example, the
movement “contra”, formed by students from political sciences
faculty of usM) . the real impact of these organizations, howe-
ver, was very limited .
13 In the first day of strike students threw eggs into the City Hall building, demanding the can-
cellation of tax in trolleybuses. Authorities did not want to give up and protests moved gradually to
the Great National Meeting Square. Since there were no leaders capable of taking over control of the
protests, the crowd became more and more aggressive, while some criminal elements infiltrated the
masses. In the last day of protest students clashed with law-enforcement forces by throwing stones.
The crowd was dispersed after a coordinated attack carried by special units. Many students were
beaten and mistreated by police, however these beatings had not been documented.
19
20. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
and, finally, protests of 7 april 2009, which had political stakes
(fraud elections results) and a nationalistic style (raising the flag
of romania), and ended up with numerous fights and clashes be-
tween youngsters and law enforcement forces . these actions had
not been controlled, while students’ organizations were present as
spectators, unable to intervene between police and youth . In the
meantime, lack of leadership led to the failure of these protests,
which did not expressed themselves but by vandalism and devas-
tation of the parliament and presidency .
Table 2 . protest movements initiated by youth (and those in from this table
which they took part) we see that all
protests take pla-
Period Number Causes Chaotic or Peaceful Result ce in the sprin-
of partici- steered or vio-
pants lent gtime of the year .
October 30 000 Social Steered non- Peaceful Students get It can be noticed,
1992 (burses, free politically burses and free
public trans- (students lea- transportation as well, that pro-
portation) ders and syndi- tests driven by
cates)
March- 100 000 Identity Steered non- Peaceful Youth gets social issues recur
May 1995 (language, politically satisfaction to violence easier
history) (Students for its identity’
League of grievances than those driven
Moldova) by identity mo-
March 30 000 Social (tick- Chaotic Violent Students loose
2000 ets in trolle- free transpor-
tives . all steered
ybuses) tation protests unfolded
January 100 000 Identity (lan- Steered politi- Peaceful Youth get mo-
-April guage) cally (PPCD) ratorium on
peacefully and
2002 identity pro- those two street
blems
movements that
April 30 000 Political Chaotic Violent Youngsters
2009 (elections are beaten unleashed chao-
fraud) and don’t get tically led to vi-
anything
olence, devastati-
ons of buildings
and vandalism . all steered peaceful actions brought about po-
sitive results for protesters, while violent protests did not bring a
single benefit to those engaged in mass movements . In conclusion,
we may state that steering factor proves to be decisive for peaceful
conduct of meetings . the existence of non-political leaders within
youth organizations with strong ramifications in universities allow
conducting peaceful protests and, in the same time, increasing the
effectiveness of such actions .
20
21. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
1.2 Diminishing influence of the youth
organizations in the Republic of Moldova
spontaneous actions, disorganized exit of youngsters to the Institutional
streets, their manipulation and actions that followed after 7 vacuum, lack of
protesting culture
april indicates the need for a well institutionalized body for
and absence of
youth, represented amongst this category, which could have clearly defined
directed the youngsters to a peaceful and legal protest or goal led to the
which could have assumed directly or indirectly the role of scenario unfolded
leader . this institutional vacuum, the lack of protesting cul- on 6-7 April 2009
ture and, of course, the lack of a well-formulated goal led to
the unfolding of scenario that followed on 6-7 april 2009 .
the existence of an inf luential youth organization, capable
of responding to young people’s needs and problems leads
to actions directed towards right solutions, carried out at
appropriate time . only in such conditions we can talk about
gradual resolution of difficulties confronted by youth, thus
avoiding the effect of accumulated problems and grievances
and, in consequence, disorganized protests of the youth wi-
thout a pre-determined goal . It worth mentioning here that
the existence of a representative organization for youth can
assume the role of mediator in crisis situations and formu-
late requirements and, of course, avoid the “effect of crowd
psychology” .
next, we will assess main youth organizations from the re-
public of Moldova, in order to bring forward their represen-
tation at the national level, outline problems they are con-
fronted with, and compare them with similar organizations
abroad .
as mentioned earlier, students’ leagues enter in decline at
the end of 90s . these organizations had been replaced by
another type of structures for youth, created to attract funds
and implement projects, and which denied to a large extent
the principle of representation, being mainly sector- and sub-
ject-oriented organizations . In other words, they ceased to be
mass organizations . amongst primordial objectives we can
mention defense of right, training and continuous formation,
european integration, civil and participative culture, access
to information and multilateral and professional formation .
21
22. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
geographical distribution of youth organizations is not proporti-
onal mainly due to the concentration of young people in chisinau
municipality (due to education institutions, as well as due to eco-
nomic development, which means access to jobs) . that does not
mean there are no youth organizations in other regions of Moldo-
va - bălţi, cahul, ungheni, căuşeni etc .
the most prominent organizations, both, from numerical and re-
presentative standpoints, are follow on ones14
national council of youth of Moldova (cntM), an umbrella or-
ganization, which has a mission to contribute to the development
of associative youth structures through conducting training events
and programs, information, lobby and consulting15 . registered on
18 february 1999, the council brings together over 30 non-gover-
nmental youth organizations at national and regional levels .
Geographical aIesec Moldova- founded in 1999 as part of international or-
repartition
ganization aIesec (youth organization, which numbers over 35
of youth
organizations is thousands members) . aIesec Moldova numbers over 100 mem-
disproportionate bers and has as its objectives developing the abilities of leadership,
due to youngsters international experience exchange, etc .
concentration
in Chişinău national union of students and youth of the republic of Mol-
municipality
dova (unstM), registered in 2000 with the goal to increase the
role of young people in the society of the republic of Moldova
through academic and cultural-organizational aspects .16
1 . national council of students organizations of the republic
of Moldova (cnosM), registered in 2008, and has the goal
to promote students self-governance, professional and cultural
development, protection of citizen’s and professional rights .
Members of cnosM are students’ syndicates and senates of
universities of Moldova .
2 . the prime-Ministers club from the youth of the republic of
Moldova (cpMt), established as a non-governmental orga-
nization with an objective to promote the interests of youth
14 Identification of Youth Organizations was based on many criteria, namely: representation, num-
ber of members, implemented projects, and the effect they can produce on a certain segment of you-
th. There were selected non-governmental national organizations, students’ organizations and youth
organizations of political parties. Selection criteria are not a factor that evaluates the functionality of
these or other not mentioned organizations.
15 http://cntm.md/ro/about.php#5- 3 October 2009
16 http://unstm.md/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60&Itemid=77- 3 October 2009
22
23. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
from the republic of Moldova and which is a link institution
between the youth and central public authorities (under the
prime-minister of rM) .
3 . european youth exchange Moldova association (eye Moldo-
va), founded in 1995 and has the objective to promote demo-
cratic values through supporting activism amongst children
and youth .
4 . amongst youth organizations (yo) of political parties can be
mentioned: yo of pldM, yo of pl, yo of pdM - democra-
tic youth, yo of aMn, yo of ppcd- new generation, yo
of pcrM- communist youth union of Moldova .
5 . amongst the advantages of these organizations, which differ
by many parameters from previous youth structures, it can
be noticed the clearly formulated goals and objectives and
identification without equivoques main directions of activity .
another advantage is the international collaboration of these
organizations, which allows experience exchanges, addressing
problems concerning youth at regional and global level and,
not the least one, a material motivation to attract young peo-
ple into these organizations .
6 . yet, quite a few youth ngos face a series of problems, internal
and judicial ones, which determine their incapacity to win a
special attention of young people . In many cases, these orga-
nizations have independent agendas from youth’ interests and
aspirations, which brings to a lack of communication between
youth and organizations per se .
7 . what comes forward in these organizations is their poor re-
presentation within the youth, or, in many cases, they limit
their activity to a narrow group of youngsters, without embra-
cing them all . prevailing focus on available funds and frequent
ignorance of real problems encountered by youth leads to a
very limited number of enrolled young people in different im-
plemented projects . there are several explanations why you-
th organizations don’t bother increasing youth organizations’
numbers: poor quality of the organization management; lack
of institutional culture within youth organizations at the na-
tional level; short-term employment of members due to low
23
24. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
profit and financial dependence of young people, which leads
to the loosing of institutional memory; bureaucratization of
positions within organization and lack of democratic princi-
ples in the organization functioning; pure financial interest of
some persons within the organization administration, etc . yo-
uth ngos do not pay due importance to inform and socialize
young people . Just a mere comparison of web pages brings in
evidence modest actions undertaken to inform the youth and
maintain permanent contact .
Youth NGOs face another problem that disturbs the youth organizations is the lack
a series of internal of inter-sector partnership in the field, which is done sporadically
and judicial
without a logical continuation . the lack of associative culture co-
problems, which
determine their mes in as an explanation to this phenomenon, alongside with the
inefficiency in absence of communication amongst organizations and, non-loyal
winning youth competition, mistrust of partners, and, not the least one, existing
due attention competition amongst organizations .
the lack of a legal framework does not allow exempting from
taxes local sponsors, thus fostering financial dependence of youth
organizations on various funds and draws their focus exclusively
on grants, which allow implementation of some projects . that
explains the distortion of the situation where youth ngos don
not try to identify urgent problems faced by youth and propose
solutions but rather are concern with getting funds . thus, rewar-
ded job, desire to stay in a specific area as long as possible, trips
abroad, and temptation to climb up on career stairs, distant youth
ngos from their target audience – the youth itself .
Another problem at the level of students self-governed’ organization the obstacles
faced by youth come from the institution’ administration itself . the principle of
organizations
superiority of universities’ leadership and of lecturers, inherited
is the lack of
inter-sector panoptic vision, which brings a breath of military barracks into
partnership in the universities, hampers the self-governance of students within
the field, which is universities . syndicates, senates and other self-governing bodies in
done sporadically students’ life exist, largely, as decoration and support for faculty
and without
continuous logic policies, their functionality being a very notional one . lecturers
domination, who use exams grades as a punishment tool, weak as-
sociation of students, lack of self-governing practice are the main
causes that diminish students participation in the decision-ma-
king process within the institutions . bologna system (to which
rM adhered in 2005) clearly stipulates that students should take
24
25. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
part in university life and in compiling education program (pra-
gue’ communiqué) . Institutions’ leadership does not take account
of this principle, neither at the regulatory-organizational level
(through their regulations), nor at the practical level – students
are not numerically represented, or their appointment is not repre-
sentative, mainly due to the weakness of students bodies within
universities boards and appointment of loyal to the administrati-
on students .
while in romanian institutions students’ representation in uni-
versities’ senates reaches 25-30%, in the republic of Moldova the-
se figures barely make it to 15% .
another problem are the regulatory norms that are to organize Basic norms
the students’ lives within universities . universities’ regulations in organizing
students’
do not include students’ self-governing bodies as integral part of
life within
the institution . likewise, these regulations intentionally omit universities
students’ rights to participate in decision-making process, impor- is another
tance of student and mandatory share of seats for students in uni- important
versities’ administration17 . problem
there are multiple causes, the most obvious one being the lack of
students’ self-governing practice, which could have been essential
for any institution at any level . diminished importance of students
leagues by universities leadership left students ungoverned, which
eventually led to chaotic and anarchic actions . as such, narrow
institutional advantage gained from not having a students’ oppo-
sition inside educational institutions generated spontaneous mass
movements, totally undirected, in which lectures and universities
heads could not replace youth leaders in managing protests .
poor interest displayed by youth towards organizations is explai-
ned by several factors: lack of a public relations strategy within
youth organizations, lack of transparency of their activity, limi-
ted access of youth organizations to mass-media, scares resources
available for youth and students organizations .
financial dependence of youth organizations from political par-
ties is the main obstacle on the path of autonomous development
17 ULIM Code can be used as an example, article 7 of which does not foresee students’ bodies
within ULIM, while article 9, says that students’ rights do not foresee participation in university’s
administration. USM Statute likewise does not foresee the existence of students self-governing body
within the university, students rights are quite general and do not foresee the self-governing process.
The share of students’ seats in the administration is not stipulated as well.
25
26. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
of these organizations . youth participation in decision-making
Financial processes within political parties remains insignificant and irrele-
dependence vant . as an example can serve electoral lists of political parties in
of youth
organizations on elections of 5 april and 29 July respectively (where only one po-
political parties litical party used youth to create new image), young people were
they belong to placed close to the bottom of the lists .
hinders their
development one of the main problems confronted by youth organizations of
into autonomous
institutions social-political formations is the low level of political culture wi-
thin young people: „knowledge, representation, values, orienta-
tions, objectives and models of political behavior”18 . It is about,
in the first row, about created negative stereotypes of political
parties, non-recognition of ideological orientation and mistrust of
political parties .
youth organizations are not admitted to the parties’ decision-ma-
king process, do not have their own budget and are dependent on
their seniors in the party, who regards youth with reservations .
there is a barrier set from the outset on the path of young politi-
cians’ ascent, which have to wait for the “grace of their seniors” .
hence, there are no conditions for a new class of politicians to
emerge .
by and large, youth is displaying an increasing nihilism, owing
to reciprocal mistrust amongst public authorities and universities
leadership on one hand, and youth on the other hand, as well as to
the lack of youth body that could be a link between its members
and the rest of the society . 19
Table 3 . Expected attention by the students from from the table we see that the
the authorities (in %)19 number of students that are
sure that their requests will
If you express your point of view in Studenţi Studenţi
front of officials, what effect, you în 2005 în 2008 be ignored by the officials do-
think, it will have? ubled in 2008 . this statistics
Students in 2001 18.4% 9.7%
Students in 2005 59.0% 48.9%
points out to an ascending
Students in 2008 21.6% 20.4% 40.6% defeatism within the political
They will take it seriously 18.0% 18.4% 9.7% and educational systems crea-
They will pay little attention 56.2% 59.0% 48.9%
They will ignore what you said 21.6% 20.4% 40.6% ted by older generation .
Don’t know, don’t have an answer 4.2% 2.2% 0.8%
Total 100% 100% 100% In conclusion, we may state
18 Ţurcan G. „Students political culture – the case study of the Republic of Moldova”, www.
scribd.com, 2008
19 Ţurcan G. „Students political culture – the case study of the Republic of Moldova”, www.
scribd.com, 2008
26
27. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
that all youth ngos, students’ self-governing organizations, you-
th organizations of political parties face specific problems, which
differ from organization to organization . yet, in general we may
say that youth segment is not covered by representative instituti-
ons . this fact contrasts with 1990s, when students’ leagues were
able to coordinate students’ life in periods of social peace as well
as during protests and street movements . the lack of this institu-
tional framework leads to chaos and anarchy in students’ actions,
which evolve in violence and confrontations with law-enforcement
forces .
the emergence of large youth organizations at the national level,
with a deep universal breathing, and that would engage most of
young people would open new legal and institutionalized oppor-
tunities to promote and defend their interests . In the meantime,
these organizations would be able to lead protests, whenever they
emerge, and would not allow them degrading into violent actions
of vandalism and guerilla .
Risks and problems
• youth of Moldova, to a greater extent than other age cate-
gories, believes that in the republic of Moldova society’s
will does not value, and that held elections were not free
and correct .
• starting with 1999, these organizations faded away, being
replaced by more mercantile structures, which had a nar-
row vision and lacked leadership vocation, limited them-
selves in actions with no desire to win youth’ respect and
support .
• protest of 6-7 april could not be controlled, while stu-
dents’ organizations were present as spectators, unable to
intervene between police and youth . In the meantime, lack
of leadership led to the failure of these protests, which did
not expressed themselves but by vandalism and devastation
of the parliament and presidency . this fact denotes a lack
of a well institutionalized youth structure, well represented
within people of this age .
27
28. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
• diminished importance of students’ leagues by the univer-
sities’ leadership brought about the situation of ungoverned
students, who embarked on chaotic and anarchic actions .
• poor interest displayed by youth towards organizations is
explained by several factors: lack of public relations strate-
gies and policies within youth organizations, lack of trans-
parency in organizations’ activity, limited access of youth
organizations to mass media, scares resources available for
youth and students organizations .
Predictions
• youth protests remain a constant risk for the Moldova so-
ciety . a certain frequency is noticed in their occurrence .
with all this said, experts assess the youth unrest as un-
likely, more probability being given to social and ethnic
unrests .
• emergence of inf luential students’ organization was pos-
sible during the period of liberalization of the educatio-
nal system, when universities enjoyed more freedom . If the
Ministry of education goes forth with liberalization of the
education system, while universities leaderships will aban-
don the principle of strict control over the students, we
may witness the emergence of solid youth organizations,
capable of managing eventual protests and protecting them
from recurring to violence .
Recommendations
1 . In this field, we propose:
2 . establish under the Ministry of youth and sports (Mts) a
permanent council for youth ngos .
3 . Mts is to become liaison institution between youth and
central/ local public authorities .
28
29. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
4 . consolidation of students bodies within universities, en-
sure their self-governance and logistical support from uni-
versities leadership . students share in universities senates
should not be less than 20% . the universities’ leadership
should learn how to cooperate with these organizations,
which, although may challenge the hierarchical structu-
re of universities in Moldova, may yet be able to control
students movements and direct them into a peaceful and
civilized channel .
5 . revise the law on youth (law nr . 279 from 11 .02 .1999)
and adjust it to new requirements of the society, engage
youth organizations in discussions on law modification .
6 . adopt the law of volunteerism (recognize the volunteering
work period, establish volunteer book, recognize acquired
credits) .
7 . revise policies on youth and engage it in discussions with
civil society . that should envision diminishing urgent
problems faced by the youth now, namely: employment,
quality of education, provision of social housing for young
families, supporting small and medium businesses, reduce
migration, demographic problem and the problem of un-
certainty in tomorrow’s opportunities for the republic of
Moldova .
8 . revise legislation on internal financing, by offering facili-
tations to sponsoring organizations .
9 . youth ngos should promote of recruiting policies that
would attract young people and involve them in projects
with professional interest .
10 . conduct seminars and projects that aim at developing or-
ganizational culture, democratic values and peaceful and
legal actions .
11 . establish a framework for collaboration with central public
authorities (apc) on the youth problems . these should be
promoted in the media in order to increase the credibility of
youth in respect to the state bodies and youth organizations .
29
30. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
12 . conduct training seminars with public servants at the lo-
cal level in order to make them acknowledge the impor-
tance of youth organizations, make them open themselves
for collaboration and at the end ensure engagement of the
youth in the decision-making process at the national and
local levels .
13 . adopt policies that would diminish mistrust in the youth
and promote young people in decision-making positions .
that would require a toolset to ensure youth access, de-
bureaucratization of positions and meritocracy-based op-
portunities for grow .
14 . transparency of the employment process and motivation
of youth involvement in civic and political lives .
15 . create economic opportunities for youth, which would aim
youth involvement in political, economic and social life of
the republic of Moldova . that should reduce at the end
migration rate and deny uncertainty in the future of r M .
30
31. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
ii. social conceRns and Response
to theM
MArCelA dilion
2.1 Increased potential of socially driven
protests
the problem of social protection and inclusiveness gets sharpens Social protests
more and more since economic crisis makes governments amend have a chance
their budgets by streamlining them and reducing expenditures . to aggravate
especially when
these problems can reach the limit of a social explosion, especial-
the never-ending
ly when rightist governments promote a neo-liberal policy witho- government’s
ut taking into consideration social softening mechanisms while dilemma –
International Monetary fund succeeds to impose its conditions economic
without negotiating with central public authorities . social pro- growth and
efficiency versus
tests have more chances to unleash when the ever government’ equality and
dilemma – economic growth and efficiency versus equity and re-distribution
redistribution – is way to easy solved in the favor of the former – is too easily
one, while social protection mechanisms being viewed as market disjoined in favor
of the first part of
economy eminently accessories . dilemma
protest movements conducted by pensioners in front of the city
hall in october show that the republic of Moldova crosses a
critical moment, typical to the power transfer . Many factors ex-
tremely favorable for the outbreak of socially driven protests re-
ciprocally supplement each other potentials . firstly, we witness a
power transfer from a leftist government to a mainly rightist one .
through decisions of the Municipal council (less the votes of
communist councilors) adopted on 15 september to increase tari-
ffs on water from 5 lei for 1 m3 to 9 lei/1m3 and increase prices
for trolleybus tickets to 2 lei from 1 leu before and bus tickets to
3 lei from 2 before, the alliance for european Integration proved
that it was ready to recur to austere economic measures, even if
they were to hit certain social strata . In the meantime, a delegati-
on of IMf led by a division chief, the former deputy minister of
finances of bulgaria, nikolay georgiev, visited chisinau in the
middle of october . this visit generated concerns about the mo-
dification of the retirement age and reduction of social allowan-
31
32. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
ces . the government rushed to disclose these rumors and after
negotiations, declared to be difficult with the fund, adopted an
optimistic attitude implying that negotiations “were a success” .
Insisting on the fact that social problems will remain a priority
for the government, the prime minister declared that there would
not be cuts of salaries, increase of vat, dismissals, increase of
current retirement age limit, while promised increase of salaries
for teachers by 24% would be preserved and carried out to the
end . 20 In the meantime, his discourse included expressions like
“optimization of budgetary expanses” or “optimization of the
number public employees”, expressions that fueled certain suspi-
Pensioners protest cion in this field . cprM leaders declared that these actions wo-
movements in uld make social protection system more vulnerable, claiming that
front of the anti-crisis programs developed by the alliance’ parties are based
City Hall in
October show
on a single main condition – obtaining external assistance from
that Republic some financial bodies, which conditioned a socially oriented state
of Moldova goes to essentially reduce budgetary expenditures . Meanwhile, cprM
through a critical chairman vladimir voronin believes that parliamentarian majo-
moment, typical
rity intends to close down many schools, dismiss more teachers,
to power transfer
process reduce scholarship burses, pensions and salaries in the public ser-
vice, increase the retirement age . 21 after the conclusion of nego-
tiations with the fund communists accused the leadership for
accepting to freeze salaries for government employees, to increase
the excise taxes on gasoline, to reduce four thousands vacant jobs
in the public sector and for accepting to increase tariffs on public
services – transportation, potable water, electricity, heating, gas,
etc .
In the meantime, the newly established government was forced to
reject salaries increase, announced earlier for certain categories of
the population, especially in the field of education . for example,
the Minister of finance veaceslav negruţă declared that salaries
increase for people employed in education (25 %), earlier plan-
ned for this autumn, would be postponed . according to negruţă,
postponement of salaries increase is one of the measures propo-
sed by new government as part of crisis exit solutions . these
increases were considered as being “non-priority expenditures”,
even so they had been decided by current government . 22 these
postponements denounce the lack of sufficient funds owed to the
budget deficit, but also points out to a change of priorities, sin-
20 http://www.eco.md/article/7080/
21 http://omg.md/Content.aspx?id=5268&lang=1
22 http://www.omg.md/Content.aspx?id=4909&lang=1
32
33. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
ce they indicate to the government readiness to initiate harmful
and explosive reforms in the short run in order to get benefits in
the long term . this approach strongly contrasts with the policies
promoted by the communist government before, which earlier
in the spring this year ceased negotiations with IMf considering
submitted requirements by IMf as being exaggerated . amongst
these requirements were increasing vat up to 25%, canceling 0
tax on re-invested profit and salaries reduction in public sector
by 10-15% . 23
pensioners protests in october shape out a concern within a cer-
tain part of the society linked to these (possible) changes of di-
rection in social policy, promoted by filat’ government . these
concerns do not have, so far, multiple grounds, since central and
local public authorities did not recur yet to a massive dismantling
of the social protection system, besides suspending salaries’ incre-
ases for some public servants and militaries and increasing prices
on water and public transportation . In fact, the government has
justified its own actions with a high degree of credibility when
saying that previous government included in the state budget
expenditures that did not have financial support in the amount
of nearly 2,8 billion lei, including 826 millions lei for salaries in-
crease in the public sector . Moreover, presented estimates by the
new leadership of the Ministry of economy and in the Ministry
of finance showed that gdp would decrease by 8% by the end
of the year and not by 5%, as suggested by previous government,
while budget deficit would exceed 8 billion lei, which made 14%
of gdp (this figure was revised earlier in order to reduce it) . 24 There are signals
Meanwhile, increased taxes on water and public transportation in that situation
chisinau are justified by the fact that current tariffs fall behind of elderly people
continues to
salaries, i .e . from 2000 till 2009 the average salary increased by
worsen, which
6,6 times, while the price on water increased by only 4,4 times is bolstered the
and for public transportation in chisinau municipality by 4,0 insufficiency
times . there are signals, however, that living conditions for el- of adequate
derly people worsened due to the lack of sufficient compensatory compensatory
measures adopted
measures adopted by the authorities . In such conditions, we may by the authorities
expect intensification of grievance actions, especially if current
aeI governance is not going to propose reparatory measures,
adequate to attenuate the shock of the crisis, especially in respect
to elderly people .
23 http://www.moldovasuverana.md/?start_from=&ucat=8&subaction=showcomments&id=1252
339313&archive=1252424923&
24 http://www.flux.md/articole/7829/
33
34. e a r ly w a r N i N g r e P O r T
J u ly - O c T O b e r 2 0 0 9
pensioners’ protests may be amplified by possible actions initi-
Pensioners ated by syndicates . syndicates from Moldova intend to follow a
protests can be hard line in negotiations with the International Monetary fund
amplified by (IMf), as declared on october 16 by newly elected chairman
possible actions
launched by of the national confederation of syndicates “solidaritate” oleg
syndicates budza . according to syndicates’ members, the government fol-
lows a wrong path in its relationship with IMf in promoting
social policies . they bring forward three non-negotiable claims .
firstly, syndicates’ members believe that in it is not possible to
reduce existing work places in Moldova . according to them, even
without those cuts Moldova has the lowest salaries in europe - 0,2
euro per hour . secondly, leaders of the national confederation
of syndicates “solidaritate” are against increasing the retirement
age threshold from 57 year to 62 years of age for women and
from 62 – to 65 for men . the argument they invoke is the average
lifespan in Moldova, which is 64 years of age . If retirement age
threshold is increased, part of the population may not live up to
the day they start receiving their pensions . thirdly, syndicates’
members believe that under no circumstances should the 100%
salaries increase for teachers, by the end of 2009, be abandoned . 25
the harsh, with which syndicates’ members treat the IMf re-
presentatives’ visit, as well as the statement of oleg budza, who
said that “if IMf and its partners from within the government
of Moldova don not take into account the syndicates opinions,
then “solidaritate” reserves the right to undertake the most firm
protest actions “, should be treated with due seriousness and re-
garded as an additional risk factor in terms of possible protests’
breakout .
In conclusion, economic reforms that filat’ government intends
to undertake may run into a callous resistance coming from two
directions – from pensioners and syndicates’ members . the most
sensible problems the current governance should keep in the loop
are poverty, elderly people, unemployment, and salaries reducti-
on . we continue with an assessment of these problems, trying to
evaluate their status .
25 http://newsmoldova.md/news.html?nws_id=833203
34
